“Sky, an exposition of what consumers would have to pay in the near-term in order to defer the climate-model-predicted disastrous future, may be Shell’s ‘cover your ass’ defense against environmental lawsuits and attacks. But by providing a scenario for evaluation, Sky might just prevent the politically correct from becoming the economically incorrect.”
Major oil and gas companies do seemingly funny things in a socio-economic climate where their main products are demonized. One company tried to get “beyond petroleum.” Another touts its support for a tax on carbon-dioxide emissions. Still another publicizes its long-run forecasts that demote the demand for its main products. Shell is that third company.
Shell’s Previous Scenarios
Leading up to Earth Day, the media was replete with articles and opinion pieces about the need to kill the fossil fuel industry before it kills the planet.…
“At the end of the day, it seems that smaller markets are clustered at the higher end of the EV penetration ranking. This suggests it will be much more difficult to mandate and effect massive vehicle fleet shifts in favor of EVs in much larger markets without significant government subsidies and/or mandates, as well as significant infrastructure investment in EV charging facilities.”
“Tesla had about 80% of the EV market in Hong Kong. The cessation of the subsidy in April has raised the cost of Tesla cars by between 50% and 80%. Will Hong Kong’s EV penetration rate follow the others who have ended subsidies, and fall?”
The US Congress is hammering out the details of tax reform proposals from the House and Senate. At risk is a continuation of the subsidies for clean energy investments—investments in new wind turbines and solar panels, along with the subsidies for electric vehicle (EV) purchases.…
“The China study highlights that the government’s push to promote EVs may actually create a greater hurdle for it achieving its goal of restricting CO2 growth.”
Yesterday’s post noted That Tesla’s federal tax subsidies, which apply to the first 200,000 vehicles produced, could be reached and exceeded next year. In such an event, what happens to Tesla’s Model 3 backlog when price-sensitive EV buyers, who have ordered the car, realize it may be delivered without the tax subsidy?
The answer might be seen in the EU, where EV tax subsidies have been cut, leading to a sharp fall in sales. This recently occurred in Hong Kong, as I described last week. But other countries have put EV subsidies, and thus EV sales, on the bubble.
Norway’s EV Effort–But Oil Rises
Critics of EV studies such as that of Bloomberg New Energy Finance (NEF) point to the recent history of oil consumption in Norway, one of the leading EV success stories.…