Sheridan Shakes the Texas/ERCOT Narrative (fossil fuels did rescue wind/solar)

“All summed, thermal generation accounted for 66.1 GW (90.8%) and 66.7 GW (86.6%) of systemwide demand during these [conservation alert] periods on Monday and Tuesday. Yet, if one were to read the analyses of many industry analysts/consultants and the media outlets that parrot them, it’s wind and battery assets… like manna from heaven…. that kept the lights on when things got tight.”

Doug Sheridan speaks truth to power. He is one of many “non-experts” who has become expert in climate and energy out of a basic sense of right-and-wrong versus the politically correct narrative.

In a recent post criticizing the mainstream view of wind and solar versus the reliables regarding the avoided blackouts in Texas by ERCOT, he provides “his take.” The entire 480-word post follows:

Having exhausted all efforts to find good-faith analyses by competent power-industry professionals or media experts focused on the condition of the Texas grid at critical points during severe cold spells, we’ve resorted to doing the analyses ourselves. Here’s our latest…

Given its current configuration, the “critical period” (highest risk of blackouts) in winter months on ERCOT is in the morning hours, just after most Texans start stirring and before the sun rises. On Monday and Tuesday of this week—with the effects of Winter Storm Heather—the critical period was at 7:50 AM each day.

With conservation notices covering the critical period on both days in place, system-wide demand during the critical period on Monday and Tuesday registered approximately 72.8 GW and 77.0 GW, respectively. At his time, demand was being met with 48.2 GW and 49.3 GW of gas-fired generation, representing approximately 66.2% and 64.0% of supply, respectively. This was augmented by 12.8 GW (17.6%) and 12.3 GW (16.0%) of coal-fired generation and 5.1 GW (7.0%) and 5.1 GW (6.6%) of nuclear generation, respectively.

All summed, thermal generation accounted for 66.1 GW (90.8%) and 66.7 GW (86.6%) of systemwide demand during these periods on Monday and Tuesday. Yet, if one were to read the analyses of many industry analysts/consultants and the media outlets that parrot them, it’s wind and battery assets… like manna from heaven…. that kept the lights on when things got tight. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

To wit, solar contributed nothing at the critical period, as the sun had yet to rise across most of the state. And as they are prone to do during winter storms, wind assets contributed a paltry 5.1 GW (7.0%) and 9.0 GW (11.7%). Meanwhile, battery reserve, the new favorite of greens and in-the-tank energy reporters, contributed about 1 GW (1%) on both days. That’s a grand total of 6.1 GW (8.4%) and 9.9 GW (12.9%), respectively.

If the implications are not yet clear, consider that at these days’ utilization rates, Texas would have needed 839 GW of combined wind generation and battery capacity to have made it through Monday. The number is 636 GW for Tuesday. This compares to 86 GW and 91 GW of thermal capacity (assuming an 85% utilization rate) at the current mix of natural gas, nuclear and coal assets for both days. See the difference?

Texas officials and institutions are continuing a pattern that emerged in gov’t during the pandemic. That is, in order to sooth their own anxieties resulting from their bad policies, they’ve decided to scare the public into behaving in ways that meet their need to hide their incompetence. During Covid this came in the form of endless warnings, lockdowns, and school and business closures. On the grid, it comes in the form of frequent conservation notices, warnings of blackouts, higher power rates, and school and business closures. Not all that different, is it?

Compare this analysis to that of Doug Lewin, spinning the facts and causality in the (paid) cause of climate alarmism and forced energy transformation, the subject of yesterday’s post. Thank you Doug Sheridan, a great American indeed.