Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles: UNSALABLE

“I’ve been around automotive for a long time, but I’ve NEVER seen incentives that represent 90% of new vehicle price. For a Toyota, 10% is the most I’ve seen. Yet, this is exactly what’s happening for the Toyota Mirai.” (James Carter, below)

EVs compete against hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles–at least in California where some one hundred hydrogen dispensing stations are. The range and fill-time of HFCVs is quite competitive with EVs. But it is downhill from there–and a major mess for sellers and buyers. The California Energy Commission (remember Methanol?) has failed again.

Consultant James Carter on LinkedIn summarized a recent article in Jalopnik, by Logan Carter, Toyota Offers $40,000 Discount On A Car Most People Can’t Fuel Up.” His autopsy (verbatim): 

• Toyota’s innovative Mirai might just be the best deal on the car market right now, but access to hydrogen fuel is getting harder.
• Even with ~$60,000 in total discounts, Mirai is still a BAD deal.
• “The $40,000 cash incentive deal is limited to 2023 model year Mirai Limited models, and includes zero percent financing for qualifying buyers. All new Mirais include $15,000 in complimentary fuel at the time of sale.”
• I’ve been around automotive for a long time, but I’ve NEVER seen incentives that represent 90% of new vehicle price. For a Toyota, 10% is the most I’ve seen. Yet, this is exactly what’s happening for the Toyota Mirai.
  
  Detail
  
  Vehicle: $66,000, less $40,000 discount
  
  Finance: $6,500 interest, less $6,500 discount
  
  Fuel for 5 years /15,000 miles annually: $45,000, less $15,000
  
  So, in total, this car will cost you $56,000 over 5 years, which is roughly the same as a Model Y Performance mostly charged from home. Perhaps add $5k for interest payments for the Y.
  
  Here’s the rub: At the end of 5 years, that Model Y will be worth about $25,000. The Mirai? Likely $2,000 to $3,000, based on history. In other words, that hugely discounted Mirai is still a BAD DEAL.
  
  Why is it still bad? Because the only Hydrogen stations are in California, and all suffer very irregular supply. In other words, there’s no guarantee you’ll get fuel when you need it. Which, unfortunately, is rule #1….
  
  Conclusion: “Driveway Jewelry”
  
  For FCEV, unless you stay within California, road trips are impossible. So, this car is really no more than driveway jewelry, and while it is a good looking car, I personally would still want to go places. And at that task it fails miserably.

Comment

So-called “green hydrogen” is in trouble, big trouble. Free marketeers on one side and environmentalists on the other are critical of government subsidies for greenwashing. ExxonMobil most recently has warned that without enough government subsidies, it will scrap its one-year-old plan to construct the world’s largest clean hydrogen facility. Such would be good news all ’round–even for ExxonMobil to call costs to date sunk and gear its operations to consumer demand, not transient political fads.