“Exacerbating the crisis is the new green energy grid because the peak hours for electricity use are from 6:30 pm to 10 pm when solar and wind are the least available. This is called the Duck Curve because the time demand energy use profile looks like the silhouette of a duck.”
The wave of power outages in California during the heat wave of 2020 are mostly in the PG&E power grid area where 21 local green energy-buying cooperatives (called Community Choice Aggregators – see map here) are buying green power and green jobs for their communities. These co-ops buy power for 10 million customers in 170 cities and counties and their goal is 100 percent green power by the 2030’s.
California depends on 25 percent imported power, mainly hydropower, from other states. However, the grid operator has been unable to buy much imported power during the regional heat wave. The only remedy for this problem is a diverse mix of power sources with green power no more than 20 to 30 percent of the mix. This heat wave shows the folly of shifting to 100 percent green power during hot spells.
Even Gov. Newsom has been forced to admit green power falls short and blames planners. But the power grid has been deregulated and decentralized to allow local communities to buy their own power, resulting in a lack of enough diverse power sources during hot weather.
Source of Power Outages Claim to be Unknown
The New York Times of August 16 reports that “Rolling Blackouts in California Have Power Experts Stumped”. Bill Powers, a San Diego power engineer, stated “This should not have caused blackouts”.
The technical reason for the rolling blackouts was the California Independent System Operator (Cal-ISO) could not find enough power reserves from out-of-state hydropower suppliers after three in-state power plants had to shut down and wind power dropped as it typically does during the daytime.
The reason for the high demand for electricity is obviously the heat wave combined with humidity that spiked the temperature to 130-degrees in Death Valley. This resulted in a Stage 3 alert where mainline electric utilities had to ask customers to curtail use or they would start cutting power by rolling blackouts. The ISO asserted it was not grid congestion or downed power lines from wildfires, but a true lack of available power plants to come online when other plants failed, causing the shortage.
Blackouts Are Mainly a PG&E Thing
But the power shortage has a geographic location: mainly in PG&E territory in Northern and Central California (see data below). There were 99 power outages in PG&E’s customer service area on August 18 at 7:15 pm, equating to one outage for every 51,515 customers. But San Diego Gas and Electric (SDG&E) had only 3 outages. Southern California Edison had multiple outages but does not provide data or location of the number of outages online.
In comparison, Arizona Public Service has 2 outages or 1 outage per 600,000 customers, mainly due its greater diversity in power sources and 50 percent natural gas-fired power.
Power Outages August 18 – 7:15 pm
| SDG&E San Diego County | PG&E – North & Central California | Arizona Public Service – APS | Marin Clean Energy | |
| Public Utility | Public Utility | Public Utility | Energy Buying Co-op | |
| No. of customers | 1.4 million electric meters | 5.1 million electric customers | 1.2 million | 470,000 |
| No. of power outages on August 18 @ 7:15 pm | 3 | 99 | 2 | Not stated |
| Outage-to-Customer Ratio | 1 outage per 466,667 customers | 1 outage per 51,515 customers | 1 outage per 600,000 customers | Not stated but many |
| Community Choice Aggregator Power Co-ops | 0 | 21 | 0 | 1 |
| Percent Green Power | 43% | 39% | 10% (hydro + solar) | 61% + 13% hydro 74% |
| Percent Nuclear Power | 0% | 34% | 22% | 0% |
| Coal power | 0% | 0% | 18% | 0% |
| Natural gas | 29% | 0% to 17% | 50% | 0% |
| Other | 28% | 6% | 0% | 26% |
Diverse Mix of Energy Sources Avoids Blackouts
Jill Hanks stated in an article “Insight into how Arizona Power Company Avoids Blackouts as California Remains on Flex Alert”, that the key to avoiding blackouts is a diverse energy mix.
This can be especially seen in Arizona Public Service (APS) capability of tapping 18 percent of “dirty” coal power that was not available to California electric utilities. Moreover, APS still relies on 50 percent natural gas power, compared to 29% for SDG&E and 0 to 17 percent for PG&E. Natural gas power plants start-up faster and can produce power 24 hours/day compared to wind mainly at night (about 4 hours) and solar power (about 10 hours per day).
Green Power Misfit for Nighttime Peak
Exacerbating the crisis is the new green energy grid because the peak hours for electricity use are from 6:30 pm to 10 pm when solar and wind are not available. This is called the “Duck Curve” because the time demand energy use profile looks like the silhouette of a duck. So, a green power grid is not a fit for the dual peak load market – peaking at midday and again at sunset. In short: California’s blackouts are a structural, design, centrally planned failure, not a market failure.
Green Power Co-Ops Worsen Problem
The institutional source of the blackout problem is the proliferation of community energy-buying cooperatives (called Community Choice Aggregators) in local areas instead of the monopoly utility companies like Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&S), So Cal Edison and San Diego Gas and Election (SDG&E) buying power for customers in their service areas.
This is shown in the data above where Marin Clean Energy, a green power buying co-op for Marin County, depends on 74 percent green power (including hydropower).
Gov. Newsom is calling for an investigation of what happened. One of the items that should be researched is how much energy are green power-buying co-ops buying out of state (especially hydropower), which may not be available in a heat wave. But the recent rolling blackouts have exposed the green power goal of 100 percent green power as a recipe for power crisis after power crisis waiting to happen.
Decentralizing the buying of power to local communities instead of by monopoly public utilities, is highly popular because it gives local politicians the ability to buy votes with green power jobs for their cities and counties. It was a former speaker of California’s Assembly who in 1963 famously said: “money (and jobs) is the mother’s milk of politics”. There will be strong local political resistance to curtailing green power mandates in California. Green power in California is a jobs program trying to be an energy policy.
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TAGS: California Blackouts 2020, Community Choice Aggregators, PG&E Pacific Gas and Electric, SDG&E San Diego Gas and Electric, So Cal Edison, Marin Clean Energy, Arizona Public Service APS, Gov. Gavin Newsom Green Power Falls Short, Insight into How Arizona Power Company Avoids Blackouts as California Remains on Flex Alert, Jess Unruh ‘Money is Mother’s Milk of Politics’, Jerry Brown ‘Small is Beautiful’, Pres. Bill Clinton 2001 EPA Clean Air Mandate, California Energy Deregulation, Death Valley 130 degrees, Duck Curve California.
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What deserves additional attention is the generation mix during a prolonged weather emergencies. In the case of California, that comes in the form of “heat storms.”
Now take a look at the pie chart from CASIO:
http://www.caiso.com/Documents/2020SummerLoadsandResourcesAssessment.pdf#search=summer%20maximum%20on%2Dpeak%20available%20capacity%20by%20fuel%20type
It’s at Appendix C: titled 2020 CAISO Summer Maximum On-Peak Available Capacity by Fuel Type (page 67)
It shows relatively little renewables and almost no battery capacity while gas provides over 60%.
I maintain serving long duration weather emergencies, be it a heat storm, polar vortex or bomb cyclone, isn’t feasible; at least not economically feasible.
I further maintain that the unsung hero has been underground gas storage.
I meant to say :
I maintain serving long duration weather emergencies, be it a heat storm, polar vortex or bomb cyclone, isn’t feasible VIA BATTERIES; at least not economically feasible.
Thanks for your comments and data sources.
To what extent do time zones make any difference in availability of backup power during Duck Curve hours? California being located on the westerly edge of the country, the easterly parts of the country are darker earlier and there is no imported solar power available. Wind power might be available but is so volatile it cannot be relied on.
What has apparently happened is not every western state has got a Duck Curve or sunset hours peak of natural gas usage because those states also now have a larger percentage of solar power. So, is imported power available for California disappearing? Out of state natural gas power plants have been available in the past but are now being tapped within their own states for Duck Curve time power.
What is apparently very damning, is the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) ordered the Community Choice organizations last November 2019 to procure 3,300 megawatts of new source dispatchable power. The president of grid operations has criticized the Community Choice agencies for not complying with the CPUC order and instead pursuing battery storage. So if there is a blameworthy entity it is the Community Choice agencies.
Even though underground gas storage may be an unsung hero, what happened August 14 and again on August 18, is that power plants went offline for emergency repairs. So gas may have been available as a fuel but generation was not operational.
Conceptually, some things are important, but most things are only necessary. Electricity in a modern society is a necessity. But necessities are not important except when you don’t have them. Important things are important all the time whether you have them or not, whether you realize it or not. Electrical system reliability is apparently not important to the green power industry. To be important, important things must be an end in themselves. The only thing I can surmise, is the green power industry is not really concerned about deaths from downed power lines, blackouts causing auto accidents at intersections without traffic signals, etc. Their singular concern is to expand green power to take over the private power industry at any cost.
CORRECTED SENTENCE ABOVE
What has apparently happened is NOW every western state has got a Duck Curve or sunset hours peak of natural gas usage because those states also now have a larger percentage of solar power.
Thanks for all the great links.
The smoke from all the fires has caused the PM2.5 to be in the 200 range for a week up here in the foothills. The air quality seems worse than I recall Beijing was like back in 1995. It so bad that our PV output has been reduced by roughly 50% for the last week.
I hate to think how bad/large blackouts would be if the smoke had settled over the utility scale PV facilities in the southern part of the state.
[…] Renewable energy is failing at times of peak demand (see the Duck Curve post this week). […]
[…] Renewable energy is failing at times of peak demand (see the Duck Curve post this week). […]
[…] Renewable energy is failing at times of peak demand (see the Duck Curve post this week). […]
What is the rationale for the article’s comment “Arizona is still using natural gas”?
Natural gas power plants generate the lowest cost energy, and by a significant margin. The plants also easily accommodate the needs of the grid and readily backstop unreliable green energy. Emissions are insignificant.
The author needs to explain the apparent bias against natural gas power plants.
Arizona is still using natural gas and that is why it escaped rolling blackouts during the heat wave. That is the thesis of the article. Thank for your comment.
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