Betting the House on Plant Vogtle

By Joseph Pokalsky -- September 18, 2018

[Editor Note: The touted nuclear power renaissance in the United States has been stymied by engineering, procurement, and construction problems with new-generation plants, namely Westinghouse’s AP1000 design. With yet another recently announced cost overrun, two minority owners of Plant Vogtle III and IV must soon decide on whether to continue with their investment with another ante-up for what was originally estimated to cost $14.3 billion (with a four-year construction period) that is now estimated by the majority owner to cost $25 billion with years still to run.

The author below reports on the latest developments for the two Vogtle Units and provides the framework for an unbiased, probability-based model that can be used by the minority owners to support their upcoming decision on the project.]

“The reluctance to cancel this project stems from the fact that so much has been expended to date.

‘Peak Oil’ is Now Demand, not Supply

By Michael Lynch -- September 17, 2018

“The tendency to exaggerate the appeal of renewables is hardly new…. Except that renewables seem to fare poorly in the real world.”

“The much-hyped ‘mass market’ Tesla Model 3 is still appearing only in the more expensive versions, from $50,000 to $85,000, rather than the $35,000 promised sticker price that was promised to appeal to the average consumer, not the luxury car driver.”

Yet another study has appeared warning of peak fossil fuel demand, which is certainly a popular topic with the media as the heavy fire season in the Southwest and hot European summer convince many that global warming is more threatening (and urgent) than it appeared to be last summer.

Unfortunately, this attention is not the result of reasoned analysis so much as the sexiness of the issue—at least in the minds of the public and the media.…