“If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.”

– Paul Ehrlich, quoted in Julian Simon, The Ultimate Resource 2, (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996), p. 35.

“As University of California physicist John Holdren has said, it is possible that carbon-dioxide climate-induced famines could kill as many as a billion people before the year 2020.”

–  Paul Ehrlich, The Machinery of Nature, Simon & Schuster, New York, 1986, p. 274.

In the name of science, Paul Ehrlich, John Holdren, and James Hansen (et al.) have made doom-and-gloom predictions about business-as-usual in an attempt to shock humanity into immediate legislative action and lifestyle changes.

It did not work. The elapsed predictions have failed to come to pass. Little wonder that new installments of climate alarmism, such as Juliet Eilperin’s “25% of Wild Mammal Species Face Extinction: Global Assessment Paints ‘Bleak Picture,’ Scientists Say, and Figure of Those at Risk Could Be Higher” in the Washington Post (October 7), don’t register with voters.…

[Editor’s note: Parts I-III provided insight into the complexities involved in any analysis of the Danish electricity system, showing (1) how unique the Denmark situation is, (2) that the details of electricity exports and imports must be understood for each of Denmark’s trading partners, (3) the likelihood that most of Denmark’s wind production is exported, and (4) an indication that the upper limit for manageable wind penetration is in the mid-single digits as a percent of domestic demand. Part IV now looks at the impact on CO₂ emissions.]

Figure 1 is a simple look at CO₂ emissions and wind electricity production, which explains the claims made by wind proponents based on a superficial examination of the information. Figure 1 shows what the Danish Energy Agency (DEA) reports based on an “adjustment” of actual CO₂ emissions.…

[Editor’s note: Parts I and II set the stage for the development of some conclusions about how much wind electricity Denmark exports, which will be provided in this post. The impact of wind on CO₂ emissions  is addressed in Part IV]

To further reduce the total amount of information to a more manageable level, the following is a look at this from the point of view of Denmark’s electricity import/export flows for the most recent “normal” year (2004), dry year, (2006), and a wet year, (2007), these conditions being the main driver of exports. This is shown graphically in Figures 1-3, starting with a normal year. In these charts numbers may not exactly balance due to rounding. Note in particular the net export levels, which are typical for each type of year.…

[Editor’s note: Part I explained the unique character of the Denmark electricity situation as background to a more detailed look at Danish exports/imports of electricity and CO₂ emissions. This post and Part III will focus on exports/imports to show the larger role that wind is having in exports. Part IV will then address CO₂ emissions, providing the conclusion to this series.]

There is a range of views on the amount of Denmark wind-generated electricity that is exported. Any that rely on annual net exports should be very suspect. Table 1 provides a summary of notable analyses, all of which at least use hourly net exports. All must be read for any comprehensive understanding.

Table 1 – Summary of Notable Analyses of the Amount of Wind-Generated Electricity Exported by Denmark.…