The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed to effect a reduction in CO2 releases in the U.S. by raising the required fuel economy standards for new cars in 2014 and again in 2016. The current standard, now at 30.2 mpg for passenger cars (everything here is about passenger cars, the analysis of light trucks will have to wait) will rise to 35.5 mpg in 2016.
EPA claims that they used a carbon price of $21/tonne to establish the appropriate increase in fuel economy. The EPA also claims that these standards will reduce CO2 releases from the vehicle sector by 21%. Well, at least they are not using the number 19. This proposal will have a minute effect on CO2 levels and is unlikely to come in at the very low or “negative” cost per tonne of CO2 claimed by its proponents.…
Continue ReadingPart I of this two-part post reviewed most of the considerations that must be understood in evaluating analyses of wind power.
Part II completes this analysis by focusing on one of the most important considerations in the wind utility debate, wind’s capacity value. To this end, I review a paper by Gross et al, which is relied on by Komanoff, and conveniently provides an opportunity for the review of a second paper.
Wind’s Capacity Value
Komanoff uses a flawed analogy by claiming that a backup quarterback contributes value to a team even if he never plays. First, the concept of “never playing” is arguably a reasonable notion with respect to industrial wind power. Second, the analogy applies more correctly to operating reserves, which are needed to fill in for the other generation means if, and when, needed.…
Continue ReadingIs the introduction of industrial- or utility-scale wind power into our electricity systems good public policy?
This political economy question (wind power is government dependent, or it would only be a market question) hinges to a large degree on operations research, or engineering. And it is here that a hotly contested debate is going on, for it is an open question about how much wind power really displaces fossil fuels–the raison d’etre of wind subsidies in the first place.
This two-part series evaluates some of the latest approaches and considerations in this debate. One important paper published in 2009 by Charles Komanoff sees wind-for-fossil-fuel displacement as robust and is currently being cited by wind proponents in Maine. Another paper in my review is a study by Gross et al, which is relied on by Komanoff.…
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