[Gary Hunt, President of Scalable Growth Strategy Advisors, posts on energy issues at his website, Zap! Crackle! Pop! Disruptive Technology, Global Competition and our Energy Future.]
The drama that raised the national debt ceiling without increasing taxes is sending warning shots across the bow for many industries. The message for energy subsidies, including the tax credits and treasury tax grants for wind and solar, as well as tax credits for oil and gas companies, could not be clearer. The gravy train is ending because the Government cannot afford it, and political realities won’t tolerate it much longer.
The debt deal did not cut renewable energy subsidies. But it set up a super committee of Congress that must produce $1.3 trillion in spending cuts by Thanksgiving. This sets up a ruthless competition between all the special interest causes that now get subsidies or tax supported benefits.
Mothers and grandmothers will be sacrificed by the lobbyists on K Street to keep their subsidies. But which ones might survive, and to what extent?
EIA Study of Energy Subsidies
In November 2010, several members of Congress asked U.S. Energy Information Service to update the study of direct Federal support and subsidies for energy done back in 2008. The request specified that the study include only energy-specific benefits with measurable budget impact.
That updated study found that direct Federal intervention and subsidies for energy have doubled from 2007 to 2010 from $17.9 billion to $37.2 billion.
But the political game played by that narrow definition was to exclude oil and gas tax benefits the President has sought unsuccessfully to cut in the debt deal. In May 2011, Congress rejected Democrat proposals to cut $21 billion in oil and gas industry subsidies. Crying foul, Friends of the Earth and other environmental groups filed a Freedom of Information Actrequest with EIA demanding an update of the subsidies for oil and natural gas that had been excluded from the updated 2010 report.
The result of this dueling studies dust-up is to make energy subsidies across the board much more visible, much more controversial and thus much more vulnerable in the next round of spending cuts.We can see the set-up taking place. If oil and gas subsidies are cut one side says, then renewable energy subsidies must also be cut. But this time, the reality is that both might have to be cut to get to the spending reduction target that avoids even more draconian triggering of across the board cuts that include defense and Medicare.
This pick-me-not-grandma choice is not the place energy subsidy advocates want to be.
The New Dynamic
Many sacred cows could be sacrifices at the altar of spending reduction, if not in the Thanksgiving round of spending cuts in 2011 then surely in the subsequent rounds needed to bring Federal spending back down to sustainable levels to enable economic growth. The reserve fund is exhausted. Surviving an early round of cuts will make each surviving subsidy more vulnerable in the next round.
At a time when every industry needs more certainty, the energy industry can expect more uncertainty and volatility. This will almost certainly quicken the consolidation process as weaker players and their investors decide not to tempt fate and sell out to bigger, stronger players with deeper pockets.
There is one certainty in all of this—the sacrifices will be enforced by the political realities that choices about cuts must be made many times before the 2012 elections. There is no escaping accountability for politicians—and voting present is not going to be acceptable to voters.
In the overall trillions at stake in the Federal budget deficitscheme of things the roughly $60 billion ($37.2 billion for renewables, ethanol, nuclear and other energy subsidies + $21 billion in oil and gas tax credits) is not a lot of money. But it makes for good political point scoring and headlines.
What Does This Mean?
Get Renewables to Grid Parity Fast. Sustainability is taking on an entirely new meaning in the energy industry that goes well beyond the political correctness that created it. Sustainability today means getting to grid parity for renewable energy or else get state regulators to raise utility rates.
States will declare RPS Victory rather than Raise Rates.Raising utility rates even more than they are going up now will be high risk so I predict state regulators will declare RPS victory at current levels and stop as business flees onerous regulatory environments taking jobs to more competitive markets. Loss of Federal subsidies for states will force all of them to get serious about enabling growth, competition between states for jobs and the loss of tax revenue from business flight.
From Ethanol back to Corn Flakes. It is tough to rationalize subsidies for corn-based ethanol even in good times and even tougher to imagine their survival in these bad times. If producers can make ethanol cost effectively from waste products without subsidies good luck to them, if not—toast.
Trade Subsidies for Pro-growth Domestic Energy Production Regulatory Streamlining. It means trading tax credits and subsidies for the oil and gas industry for less regulation and easier E&P development of unconventional resources to scale growth, create jobs and put revenues in the tax mans’ account. Arguing for regulatory certainty in exchange for tax subsidies is likely to be a very attractive alternative.
Unconventional Domestic Natural Gas is the Yellow Brick Road to Lower Emissions. Giving up subsidies to get more domestic energy production relief from regulation built into law is a deal worth doing for both the energy industry and politicians. EPA is killing growth with an endless stream of new regulations. But low cost natural gas produced domestically is an even more powerful and politically palatable way of making the transition away from coal while achieving 50% emissions reductions as a byproduct. What’s not to like about that? Environmental groups will want more renewable energy band they can achieve it with no subsidy grid parity competition between resources. This is the way out for politicians burned by picking winners and losers—and becoming losers themselves in the process of unsustainable subsidies.
Coal Exports grow as Natural Gas Takes Market Share Lead. It means a head to head competition between coal and gas for market share for power generation where coal not burned will be exported. Natural gas is the fuel of choice and will rapidly displace coal to help achieve emissions reductions.
Baby Nukes or Bye Bye Nukes. It means the looming risk of inflation driving up costs and uncertainties over nuclear safety after Fukashima puts nuclear energy back in its first generation “Groundhog Day” movie. The only escape is to abandon large nukes in favor of small, modular, safer designs while continuing to run the plants we have for as long as we can.
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Gary Hunt has more than 30 years experience in the energy, software and information technology industries. His past positions have included VP-Global Analytics & Data at IHS/CERA; Division President, Ventyx/Global Energy Advisors (now an ABB Company); CEO, MMWEC, a New England-based wholesale power producer; and manager of Austin Energy and Austin Water as Assistant City Manager for Utilities & Finance for Austin, Texas.
Mr. Hunt can be reached at ghunt94526@gmail.com.
Given the likelihood of higher interest rates for capital, and the capital intensiveness of renewables (combined with their lower value proposition for many–or at least the most fave) combined with the current >40% “premium” is it even possible for renewables to achieve grid parity in the foreseeable future?
Given their energy density and the Rube Goldberg nature of the mechanisms necessary to convert wind and solar energy to modern power, such renewables will NEVER achieve grid parity, unless we abandon our ability to separate fantasy from reality (now that is distinctly possible).
I can understand how natural gas can supplant coal in the US (this could have happened in the 1960s and early 1970s). However, try as I might, I cannot make sense of this sentence from the article: “Environmental groups will want more renewable energy and they can achieve it with no subsidy grid parity competition between resources.” Is Mr.Hunt implying that wind and solar will be enabled by natural gas and, in consequence, environmental groups will rally behind case to cheerlead for their neolithic favorites? If so, what a budget buster. Natural gas needs wind like a fish needs a bicycle.
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Intercontinental Exchange to shut down CCX.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/09/death-of-a-carbon-salesman-chicago-climate-exchange/
While the CCX will be shut down we still have regional green gas initiatives. I feel that the carbon tax or something similar is still being discussed as a method of deficit reduction.
Here is a little abot the RGGI of which 2 states have already pulled out. This is a must read from award winning investigative journalist Mark Lagerkvist.
THE SECRETS TEN STATES & WALL STREET DON’T WANT YOU TO KNOW
http://newjersey.watchdog.org/2010/08/02/cap-trade-scheme-is-clouded-in-secrecy/
Here is more on the RGGI and be sure to read the links at the end of the article.
N.E. CARBON MARKET REELS AS RGGI AUCTION HITS ALL-TIME LOW
http://newjersey.watchdog.org/2011/06/10/2635/
ICE Adds 21 Emissions Contracts to Replace Futures Exchange
http://www.environmentalleader.com/2011/08/09/ice-adds-21-emissions-contracts-to-replace-futures-exchange/
Reid Will Name Sens Murray, Baucus, Kerry To Debt Panel -Source
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201108091752dowjonesdjonline000384&title=reid-will-name-sens-murraybaucuskerry-to-debt-panelsource
[snip]
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) will name Sens. Patty Murray (D., Wash.), Max Baucus (D., Mont.) and John Kerry (D., Mass.) to a panel of lawmakers created as part of last week’s deal to raise the debt ceiling, a Democratic official said.
Murray, a member of the Senate Democratic leadership team, will be named the co-chairman of the committee, the official said.
Kerry’s record with cap and trade and his wife’s former affiliation with Enron and environmental issues would lead me to believe that the super committee will implement something on the line of a ‘carbon tax’.
Kerry, Boxer: U.S. ‘Needs’ Cap-and-Trade on Carbon Emissions Even if Energy Costs Rise
http://www.cnsnews.com/node/45330
Democratic Sens. John Kerry and Barbara Boxer told CNSNews.com that the nation must adopt the Obama administration’s cap-and-trade proposal to reduce carbon emissions, even if it results in massive increases in gasoline and electricity prices.
When CNSNews.com asked the Massachusetts Democrat whether the country could afford cap-and-trade during the recession, Kerry responded, “Yes, yes, yes, and yes.” He added: “The cap and trade system is – in fact – going to help us kick our economy back into gear.
John:
Thanks for all this good information. The Lagerkvist piece was–uh–on the money….
But I don’t think it’s likely in the short term for a frontal carbon tax. However, I believe that the dreaded renewables will likely be pushed as yet another bipartisan “compromise” in lieu of direct carbon taxes. Certainly Goldman Sachs and the big energy combines won’t resist. All things being equal, the more wind, the more more need for conventional fuel. The folks in natural gas understand this, all too well. Which may be the reason environmental groups will be encourage dto support both renewables subsidies and natural gas. The media is even now gearing up to tout such courageous political compromise.
Disgusting doesn’t even begin to describe what is likely to happen. All we need now is Rick Perry’s presidential proffer….
[…] Debt-Deal Warnings for Energy Subsidies by Gary Hunt […]
Jon, Perry will announce he is running this weekend. We know how Kerry feel about cap so I will post how Murray feels.
Here is what Murray said….
http://conservativeamericanvet.wordpress.com/2009/04/23/senator-patty-murray-response-to-my-carbon-taxing-letter/
Max doesn’t read his bills either….
http://www.sfexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/max-baucus-author-obamacare-admits-he-never-read-his-own-bill
Lets see who the republicans put on the committee………………
John:
The Select Committee itself is a shaggy dog story, designed for pomp and circumstance–and cover. Until Congress is willing to pull the plug on renewable subsidies in the form of tax reduction “incentives,” the renewables circus will play on. Even Grover Norquist is opposed to eliminating such subsidies, under his banner of “tax relief.” There likely will be a lot of feinting about reducing subsidies to oil and coal, and perhaps some actual (small) reductions. But if history is any guide in such enterprise, these will be more than compensated by the income Big Energy can make by passing gas via renewables.
That may be likely now. Here is the latest.
http://news.yahoo.com/boehner-names-gop-members-super-debt-panel-152534432.html
They all oppose C&T
U.S. Considers Funding Various Mexican Energy Projects
http://www.tradeaidmonitor.com/2011/08/us-funding-mexican-energy-projects.html
enable the development of a 70 MW wind power generation project in the Municipality of Zacatecas. The Feasibility Study will allow the Grantee to assess available wind power resources, verify the power demand profile, evaluate the financial value of wind power in comparison to existing power supply arrangements, and draft legal documents and agreements.
Pelosi picks Clyburn, Becerra and Van Hollen for deficit ‘super committee’
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/pelosi_picks_clyburn_becerra_committee_XtRtmkX7JL2XygiyWhBuGN
Note: all 3 are in favor of cap and trade.